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Minton and Somale (2025) developed a methodology to detect tariff effects on consumer prices in real time that relies solely on publicly available data. Inflation expectations are understood to play a crucial role in inflation dynamics and in the conduct of monetary policy. Outstanding mortgage debt in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector totaled $6 trillion at the end of 2024 including owner-occupied and nonowner-occupied real estate, multifamily mortgages, and loans backed by acquisition, development, and construction projects. Money market funds (MMFs) play a critical role in supplying short-term funding to corporations, banks, and governments.
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This contrasts with traditional auto dealers, who connect buyers to financing options from third-party banks, credit unions, or auto finance companies, including the captive financing arms of auto manufacturers. However, compared to homeowners with a mortgage, data on renters are scarce, limiting researchers' ability to analyze the 28 percent of adults who rent their home. This note draws on several regulatory data sources to show that trade finance supports a sizeable share of international trade, is highly concentrated in large U.S. banks, and has declined over time. However, deciphering trend from cycle in these indicators is notoriously difficult and can be especially delicate when underlying trends in the economy shift rapidly. Labor market indicators such as employment growth and the unemployment rate are commonly used to assess the cyclical position of the economy (NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee). The Treasury International Capital (TIC) system offers comprehensive data on U.S. cross-border securities holdings and transactions, facilitating a detailed understanding of U.S. capital flows.
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